Biotech Consulting
Financial Modeling — rNPV
An interactive risk-adjusted net present value model. Adjust the parameters or edit any cell to recalculate the program valuation.
Kyverna single-program rNPV. Edit any blue cell to recalculate. Cumulative PoS carries within a phase and multiplies at each phase transition.
| Phase | Phase 2 | Phase 3 | Commercial Phase | Terminal Year | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year ($M) | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 |
| US gross revenue | |||||||||||||||||||
| Gross to net (GTN) discount | |||||||||||||||||||
| US net revenue | $0.0M | $0.0M | $0.0M | $0.0M | $0.0M | $659.1M | $1,318.2M | $1,977.3M | $2,636.4M | $3,295.5M | $3,295.5M | $3,295.5M | $3,295.5M | $3,295.5M | $3,295.5M | $3,295.5M | $3,295.5M | $3,295.5M | $3,295.5M |
| ex-US revenue | |||||||||||||||||||
| COGS | |||||||||||||||||||
| Gross Profit | $0.0M | $0.0M | $0.0M | $0.0M | $0.0M | $253.5M | $507.0M | $760.5M | $1,622.4M | $2,028.0M | $2,028.0M | $2,028.0M | $2,028.0M | $2,028.0M | $2,028.0M | $2,028.0M | $2,028.0M | $2,028.0M | $2,028.0M |
| R&D | |||||||||||||||||||
| SG&A | |||||||||||||||||||
| EBIT | -$35.0M | -$35.0M | -$105.0M | -$105.0M | -$140.0M | -$233.2M | -$365.0M | -$395.5M | $283.9M | $354.9M | $354.9M | $354.9M | $354.9M | $354.9M | $354.9M | $354.9M | $354.9M | $354.9M | $354.9M |
| Probability of Success (PoS) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Cumulative PoS | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 0.3500 | 0.3500 | 0.2275 | 0.2048 | 0.2048 | 0.2048 | 0.2048 | 0.2048 | 0.2048 | 0.2048 | 0.2048 | 0.2048 | 0.2048 | 0.2048 | 0.2048 | 0.2048 | 0.2048 |
| rNPV | -$35.0M | -$35.0M | -$36.8M | -$36.8M | -$31.8M | -$47.8M | -$74.7M | -$81.0M | $58.1M | $72.7M | $72.7M | $72.7M | $72.7M | $72.7M | $72.7M | $72.7M | $72.7M | $72.7M | $72.7M |
| Discounted rNPV | -$35.0M | -$31.5M | -$29.8M | -$26.9M | -$21.0M | -$28.3M | -$40.0M | -$39.0M | $25.2M | $28.4M | $25.6M | $23.1M | $20.8M | $18.7M | $16.9M | $15.2M | $13.7M | $12.3M | $11.1M |
Total rNPV (sum of discounted)-$40.6M